Fuel Nightmare Looms: Petrol Set to Increase by Ksh53 per Litre as Supply Crisis Deepens
Kenyans may soon face a sharp rise in fuel prices, with petrol projected to sell at Ksh231.68 per litre in the next pricing cycle, according to industry experts. The anticipated increase, which could see petrol prices rise by Ksh53.4, is largely driven by a surge in global oil prices and ongoing supply pressures in the local market.
Martin Chomba, Chair of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya (POAK), told Inooro FM on Tuesday, April 7, that the next fuel price review, scheduled for April 14, could see adjustments ranging from Ksh30 to Ksh60 per litre. He explained that the figures are based on a weighted average of fuel shipments that arrived at the Port of Mombasa between March 9 and April 10.
“The current stability in pump prices is temporary,” Chomba said. “Most of the fuel being sold was imported about a month ago, before recent global price spikes. If adjustments are delayed, we could face serious supply disruptions.”
Regional trends have also influenced the market. Tanzania recently raised fuel prices by more than 30 per cent, a move that could shape Kenya’s policy. Chomba warned that if Kenya follows suit, petrol prices could increase by Ksh53.4, mirroring Tanzania’s surge.
“This month, Tanzania increased fuel prices by over 30 per cent. Without lying to Kenyans, fuel prices must go up. If the prices don’t go up, then it will be difficult to find the fuel,” Chomba said.
He highlighted Kenya’s lack of strategic fuel reserves, noting that the country depends heavily on continuous imports to meet demand. “We do not have reserves. Today, we would have a big crisis if no ship docked at the Port of Mombasa. The oil we have in the pipeline can only last 21 to 30 days at most. At that point, there is no holiday like Easter, and schools are closed,” he added.
Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura addressed the potential price hikes on April 3, reassuring the public that fuel prices would remain stable in the immediate term. “We do not, at the moment, consider increasing the prices in the next review. This is because we already have a consignment in advance. Let’s wait and see until the end of April, when we can assess the situation,” Mwaura told Channel Africa.
Mwaura explained that Kenya has already received its next shipment of fuel for April, with the government capable of importing up to eight shiploads of petroleum monthly. “We have a very good way of stabilising our supplies. There is no cause for alarm as we are dealing with the situation as it is,” he said.
Despite these assurances, distribution challenges are emerging across the country. Smaller, rural fuel retailers, who account for around 68 per cent of all fuelling points and handle 40 to 45 per cent of national petroleum throughput, report limited access to supply. In areas such as Kirinyaga, fuel remains in storage but has not yet reached retail stations.
Amid ongoing scrutiny over billions of shillings worth of substandard fuel imports, Chomba revealed that some lower-quality shipments are already in storage but may not yet have been released to the market.
He described the local fuel supply chain, which has long remained opaque, noting that shipments arriving at the Port of Mombasa are offloaded into storage tanks managed by the Kenya Pipeline Company or other government facilities. While stored by the government, the fuel remains the property of the importing companies. Retailers can only access fuel after paying duties and taxes, and Kenya Revenue Authority clearance can take several days, delaying availability to consumers.
Chomba also raised concerns about fuel quality, citing reports that some shipments may contain higher sulphur content. While still usable, such fuel may not meet the country’s preferred standards, raising questions about compliance and potential impacts on vehicles.
Although the government has the option of using the Petroleum Development Levy to cushion consumers from price hikes, Chomba emphasised that market forces—including global oil prices and private sector control—will ultimately determine pump prices.
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Fuel Nightmare Looms: Petrol Set to Increase by Ksh53 per Litre as Supply Crisis Deepens