Kenyans Face Higher Costs for Bread, Rice and Sugar as CBK Warns of Fresh Price Hikes
Millions of Kenyan households could soon dig deeper into their pockets for essential food items after a new survey by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) indicated that prices of several staple commodities are expected to rise in the coming weeks.
The latest Agriculture Sector Survey for May 2026 paints a mixed picture for consumers, with the cost of key household necessities such as bread, rice, sugar and cooking oil projected to increase, even as the prices of vegetables and some fresh produce are expected to ease due to improved harvests.
According to the survey, concerns over global economic uncertainties, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, have heightened fears of disruptions to international supply chains, pushing up expectations of higher food prices.
Respondents identified rice varieties, bread, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar, cooking oil, cooking fat and packaged milk among the products likely to become more expensive over the next month.
The CBK noted that rising global oil prices and shipping disruptions continue to have a significant impact on imported goods and processed food products, which form a substantial portion of household spending across the country.
The findings come at a time when many families are already grappling with the high cost of living, despite a recent slowdown in inflation.
However, there was some relief for consumers as the survey projected lower prices for several fresh food items due to favourable weather conditions and improved agricultural output.
Spinach, sukuma wiki, traditional vegetables and unpackaged fresh milk are among the commodities expected to register price declines as increased supplies reach local markets following successful harvests.
The anticipated drop in prices has largely been attributed to favourable rainfall received during the March-May 2026 long rains season, which boosted agricultural production in many parts of the country.
“There were, however, some respondents who were not as optimistic about the agriculture sector prospects, pointing out that the early onset of rainfall in February 2026 had adversely affected land preparation in some regions,” the survey stated.
Other food products expected to benefit from improved supply include tomatoes, onions, potatoes, carrots, green maize, maize grain and green grams, although expectations varied depending on the region.
Despite concerns over rising food prices, the survey suggested that inflation expectations may be moderating. About 65 per cent of respondents expect inflation to rise in the coming month, down significantly from 81 per cent recorded in April.
The findings suggest that stronger food supplies could help cushion consumers against some of the upward pressure caused by global economic developments.
Transport costs remained the single biggest factor influencing food prices, with 95 per cent of respondents identifying transportation expenses as a major determinant of both wholesale and retail prices.
Weather patterns, agricultural input costs, labour expenses and supply chain challenges were also cited as key drivers of food prices across the country.
Even with the challenges facing consumers, confidence in the agricultural sector remained relatively strong. More than 80 per cent of respondents expressed optimism that agricultural performance would improve over the next three months and over the next year, citing favourable weather conditions and ongoing government support programmes.
The survey underscores the delicate balance facing Kenyan consumers, who may enjoy cheaper vegetables and fresh produce in the short term while simultaneously confronting higher prices for some of the country’s most essential household staples.
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