Malava By-Election: Seth Panyako Leads in Tight Race, Latest Poll Reveals
A new opinion poll has indicated that Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) candidate Seth Panyako is currently leading in the race for the Malava parliamentary seat ahead of the upcoming by-election.
Released on Wednesday, November 19, by research firm Mizani Africa, the survey suggests Panyako is positioned to emerge victorious if current trends persist.
The poll, conducted between November 13 and 15 among 700 respondents, shows Panyako with a popularity rating of 47.2%, placing him ahead of his closest rival.
United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate David Ndakwa follows closely, garnering 40.3% support according to the survey. The results highlight a competitive contest, with 9.4% of voters still undecided, a bloc that could ultimately determine the outcome.
“The latest Mizani Africa survey for the Malava Constituency by-election places Seth Panyako in the lead with 47.2%, giving him a modest but clear advantage as the most preferred candidate at this stage,” Mizani Africa stated. “David Ndakwa follows closely at 40.3%, maintaining a competitive position and signalling a potentially tight race should momentum shift. Other candidates collectively account for 3.1%, while the undecided group stands at 9.4%, indicating that a small but significant share of voters is yet to commit. With the undecided bloc still open, both leading camps have room to shape voter direction as the by-election draws nearer.”
The survey also compared Panyako’s current standing with previous polling, showing a gradual increase in support. “The comparison between the November 7th and November 19th Mizani Africa surveys reveals a highly competitive landscape in the Malava Constituency by-election. Seth Panyako has strengthened his lead, rising from 44.7% earlier in the month to 47.2% in the most recent poll, reflecting increased consolidation of support as campaigns intensify,” the research firm added.
Ndakwa, whose campaign has received backing from President William Ruto’s personal aide Farul Kibet, has also gained momentum in recent weeks. “David Ndakwa has posted gains, moving from 37.9% to 40.3%, signalling growing traction and re-energised engagement among his supporters. His upward movement suggests that both candidates are still actively shaping voter opinion within a narrowing margin,” Mizani Africa said.
The Malava by-election is shaping up to be a closely watched contest, with both candidates vying to secure support from undecided voters in the coming weeks. Political analysts suggest that campaign strategies and grassroots mobilisation could play a decisive role in determining the eventual winner.
Also Read: Kenya Govt Responds to New York Times Allegations Linking Ruto Family to Slave Trade
Malava By-Election: Seth Panyako Leads in Tight Race, Latest Poll Reveals