Poll Shock: DCP Candidate Struggles as Karish and UDA Rival Dominate Mbeere North By Election Race
Mbeere North is set for a fierce political battle after former MP Geoffrey Ruku was appointed to the Cabinet, leaving a vacancy that has triggered a succession contest.
A new opinion poll by Mizani Africa has thrown up a surprise, showing individual candidate strength is more important than party influence. The poll has DP’s Newton Karish in the lead with 40.1% support despite the party having only 6.5% popularity among local voters.
This means voters are going for familiarity and continuity rather than party brands. Ruku who won the seat on a DP ticket in 2022 has left behind a loyal base that Karish is now benefiting from.
Karish is followed by Leonard Muriuki of UDA who has 33.3% support. Despite UDA having national sway and 26.7% preference in the constituency, Muriuki has not been able to close the gap with Karish.
Third is Duncan Mbui of Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) with 20%. Interestingly while DCP has the highest party preference at 43.3% in the constituency, Mbui has not been able to translate that into direct voter backing. The mismatch is a growing challenge for Gachagua’s team: turning sympathy for the party into actual votes.
The rest are Josiah Thiriku with 3.3% and 3.3% undecided. According to Mizani Africa these numbers reflect a growing trend in Kenyan politics where “individual appeal may be outshining party loyalty as Mbeere North voters weigh legacy, leadership and familiarity in their decision”.
For Rigathi Gachagua the by-election is high stakes. His allies have camped in Mbeere North to win the seat as their first parliamentary victory under the DCP banner. For UDA it’s a test of President William Ruto’s grip on Mt Kenya especially after recent cracks in his influence after Gachagua’s exit from the Deputy President’s office.A win for Karish and DP would be a comeback for a party that was written off, giving it relevance in Mt Kenya East politics. On the other hand UDA’s loss in this symbolic race would raise questions about its ability to hold on to support in areas where it has invested heavily.
Gachagua has already said he will challenge UDA in all mini polls. On Wednesday September 3 he unveiled DCP candidates for Kajiado by-elections and vowed to defeat Ruto’s camp. His party will also clash with UDA in Malava where the late MP Malulu Injendi’s seat fell vacant and UDA has fronted Injendi’s son to succeed him.
As the campaigns heat up Mbeere North is turning out to be more than just a constituency race – it’s becoming a test of political strength between President Ruto and his former deputy with Newton Karish emerging as the surprise frontrunner.
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Poll Shock: DCP Candidate Struggles as Karish and UDA Rival Dominate Mbeere North By Election Race