TIFA Poll Delivers Surprise Twist as Edwin Sifuna Overtakes Opposition Rivals in 2027 Race While Ruto Holds Firm
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the opposition’s strongest-performing presidential hopeful in the latest Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) opinion poll, overtaking several established political heavyweights as the battle for the 2027 General Election begins to take shape.
The survey, released on Friday, July 24, 2026, paints a shifting political landscape in which President William Ruto continues to maintain a stable lead, while the opposition remains divided despite growing public dissatisfaction in some quarters.
According to the findings, President Ruto retains 24 per cent support in a hypothetical presidential contest—unchanged from the previous survey conducted in May 2026—making him the single most popular candidate in the race at this stage.
The biggest surprise, however, comes from Sifuna, whose political fortunes have surged dramatically over the past year.
The Nairobi Senator, who registered virtually no measurable presidential support during earlier polling in 2025, has climbed to 15 per cent, making him the fastest-rising opposition figure and placing him ahead of several long-established presidential contenders.
TIFA described Sifuna’s rise as the most significant movement recorded among opposition politicians.
“Although opposition support remains fragmented, Sifuna has recorded the fastest rise among opposition figures, increasing from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 per cent in June 2026,” the pollster stated.
The findings suggest Sifuna is increasingly positioning himself as a serious contender for opposition leadership ahead of the 2027 election, even as questions remain over whether rival parties can unite behind a single presidential candidate.
Matiang’i and Kalonzo Lose Ground
The poll also indicates declining support for former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who previously led opposition hopefuls in earlier surveys.
Matiang’i’s popularity has dropped significantly from a peak of 32 per cent recorded in September 2025 to 14 per cent in both May and June 2026.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has also experienced a steady decline.
Having reached 25 per cent support in November 2025, Kalonzo now stands at 13 per cent, representing a six-point drop from the 19 per cent he recorded in May this year.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has likewise seen his numbers fall.
After climbing to 9 per cent in May 2026, his support has slipped to 7 per cent, suggesting that his political momentum has slowed in recent months.
Meanwhile, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remains on the margins of the race.
Despite registering 8 per cent support at one point in November 2025, the latest survey places him at just 2 per cent, indicating little movement over recent months.
Ruto Maintains Advantage Despite Fragmented Opposition
While opposition figures continue to attract support from different regions and political constituencies, the survey suggests none has yet managed to consolidate anti-government voters into a single formidable challenge against President Ruto.
TIFA notes that Ruto’s support has grown from 18 per cent shortly after the 2022 General Election to 24 per cent, where it has now remained stable across the last two polling periods.
The survey also points to a sizeable group of undecided voters who could ultimately determine the outcome of the 2027 contest.
According to the poll, 20 per cent of respondents remain undecided about their preferred presidential candidate, although this represents a decline from 28 per cent recorded in August 2022.
Support for other unnamed candidates has also narrowed considerably, falling from 8 per cent in August 2025 to just 2 per cent in June 2026, suggesting the presidential race is increasingly consolidating around a smaller group of nationally recognised figures.
With nearly a year before the expected start of full-scale campaign activities, the latest TIFA findings indicate Kenya’s opposition remains without a universally accepted flagbearer, even as Sifuna’s rapid rise reshapes the conversation around who could ultimately challenge President Ruto in 2027.
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