TIFA Poll Delivers Fresh Blow to ODM and UDA as Gachagua’s DCP Surges Ahead of 2027 Race
A new opinion poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) has suggested that Kenya’s political landscape is undergoing a major shift ahead of the 2027 General Election, with support for the country’s two dominant parties—the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA)—declining as Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) rapidly gains ground.
The survey, released on Friday, July 24, 2026, paints a picture of an increasingly competitive political environment, with nearly one in every three Kenyans saying they do not currently support any political party.
According to TIFA, while ODM and UDA remain the country’s leading political formations, both have lost support compared to their standing after the 2022 General Election.
“Support for ODM and UDA has declined significantly since the 2022 General Election, while DCP is emerging as a challenger, and nearly one-third of voters remain undecided,” TIFA said in its report.
ODM Still Leads, But UDA Faces Pressure as DCP Climbs
The poll places ODM at the top with 20 percent national support, only narrowly ahead of President William Ruto’s UDA, which stands at 17 percent.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP has risen to 12 percent, making it the country’s third most popular political party despite being a relatively new entrant to Kenya’s political scene.
Former ruling party Jubilee follows with 10 percent, while Wiper Democratic Movement enjoys 7 percent support.
The poll also found that DAP-Kenya commands 1 percent, with 5 percent backing other political parties.
Perhaps most strikingly, 28 percent of respondents said they do not support any political party at all, while 2 percent declined to answer—an indication that a significant bloc of voters remains up for grabs before the 2027 contest.
Regional Strongholds Continue to Shape Political Competition
Despite the changing political dynamics, regional voting patterns remain deeply entrenched.
ODM continues to dominate Nyanza, where it commands 47 percent support.
UDA remains strongest in Northern Kenya, where it records 48 percent support, while also maintaining a strong presence in the Central Rift region.
Meanwhile, DCP has consolidated its influence in Mt Kenya, registering 35 percent support there, underscoring Gachagua’s continued political appeal in the region following his fallout with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
DCP Slips Slightly But Remains a Major Force
TIFA noted that while DCP remains the closest challenger to ODM and UDA nationally, its support dipped slightly over the past month.
The party’s popularity declined from 16 percent in May 2026 to 12 percent in June 2026.
During the same period, ODM registered modest gains relative to UDA, while the number of Kenyans who said they do not support any political party rose from 24 percent to 28 percent, suggesting growing voter dissatisfaction or uncertainty ahead of the next election.
UDA Has the Most Loyal Registered Members
The survey also examined party membership among supporters of Kenya’s five largest political parties.
Among respondents who support these parties, 44 percent said they are officially registered members.
UDA recorded the strongest membership loyalty, with 59 percent of its supporters saying they are registered members of the party.
ODM followed with 45 percent, while Wiper recorded 41 percent, Jubilee 38 percent, and DCP 34 percent.
2027 Political Battle Taking Shape
TIFA concluded that Kenya is heading into one of its most competitive political contests in recent history, with traditional political heavyweights facing growing pressure from emerging formations.
The findings suggest that while ODM and UDA remain the country’s leading political parties, the rise of DCP and the large number of politically unattached voters could reshape the race to State House as parties intensify campaigns ahead of the 2027 General Election.
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