Ruto and Oburu Odinga to Face UDA-ODM Power Struggle at Crucial Naivasha Retreat
President William Ruto and ODM party leader Oburu Odinga are expected to take centre stage as senior UDA and ODM leaders gather in Naivasha for a high-stakes three-day retreat that could shape the political future of Kenya’s broad-based administration ahead of the August 2027 General Election.
The retreat, which begins on Sunday, August 9, is expected to bring together governors, deputy governors and Members of Parliament from the two political parties as leaders seek to assess the future of their cooperation and begin laying the groundwork for the 2027 contest.
National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah confirmed that leaders would begin checking into the retreat on Sunday evening, with substantive discussions expected to continue throughout Monday.
“We’ll check in on Sunday evening. We have some meetings on Sunday evening, and we have the whole day on Monday, all the way till evening. We’ll give you the press briefing at 4 p.m.,” Ichung’wah said.
The gathering comes at a critical moment for the broad-based administration, with negotiations between UDA and ODM increasingly becoming a central issue in the country’s political landscape.
UDA-ODM power-sharing talks take centre stage
Among the issues expected to dominate the retreat are the implementation of recommendations contained in the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, compensation for victims of protests, the recently unveiled Vision 2060 framework and plans for nationwide political mobilisation ahead of the 2027 election.
However, the most politically sensitive discussions are expected to revolve around the proposed UDA-ODM coalition and how power would be shared should the two parties enter into a formal electoral partnership.
ODM has increasingly pushed for what its leaders describe as a fair power-sharing arrangement, including a demand for the Deputy President position if President Ruto secures the coalition’s presidential ticket.
Senate Minority Leader Stewart Madzayo has argued that the position should automatically go to ODM if the broad-based arrangement continues into the next election.
“We demand that if we have to work together, it is only proper if the position of the Deputy President came from the ODM party,” Madzayo said.
He added:
“The President and the Deputy President cannot come from one party if we are in this broad-based arrangement, and therefore automatically it goes without saying that the Deputy President will come from the ODM party.”
The demand could place Deputy President Kithure Kindiki’s political future under renewed scrutiny, particularly if negotiations over a 2027 coalition move from informal discussions to a formal agreement.
ODM pushes for more political guarantees
ODM leaders have also called for the party’s traditional political strongholds to be protected from competition by UDA candidates, making regional zoning another potentially contentious issue in the negotiations.
The party has indicated that protecting its electoral bases would be among its key conditions for any long-term partnership with UDA.
ODM has meanwhile floated several senior figures who could potentially serve as Ruto’s running mate if the two parties agree on a joint presidential bid.
Among the names mentioned are Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga.
UDA, however, has continued to signal confidence in Kindiki, with allies maintaining that Ruto could retain him as his running mate in 2027.
That position puts the two sides on a potential collision course, with ODM seeking the country’s second-highest office while UDA remains reluctant to surrender the position.
Naivasha retreat could set the tone for 2027
The Naivasha meeting is therefore expected to go beyond discussions about the performance of the broad-based administration and could provide an early indication of how the two political formations intend to approach the 2027 election.
The retreat is also expected to pave the way for the formation of a negotiation team that would handle the details of a possible UDA-ODM partnership, including political positions, electoral arrangements and the distribution of responsibilities.
With the 2027 presidential contest already beginning to dominate political calculations, the Naivasha talks could become an important test of whether UDA and ODM can maintain their partnership despite competing ambitions.
For President Ruto, the challenge will be to maintain cohesion within his political camp while negotiating with an ODM leadership that is increasingly demanding a greater role in the administration and the next presidential campaign.
For ODM, the retreat offers an opportunity to turn its growing influence within the broad-based government into concrete political commitments ahead of 2027.
What emerges from Naivasha could therefore determine not only the future of the broad-based administration, but also the shape of Kenya’s next major political alliance.
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