President William Ruto has emerged as the most preferred presidential candidate ahead of the 2027 General Election, according to a new survey released by TIFA Research, as the battle for opposition influence also exposed growing divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
The poll, conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, places Ruto at the top of the presidential preference race with 24 per cent support, ahead of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who garnered 19 per cent.
Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i followed with 14 per cent, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna emerged as a surprise top contender with 10 per cent support, narrowly edging former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, who polled 9 per cent.
In its analysis, TIFA cautioned that the 2027 race remains highly unpredictable despite Ruto’s early advantage, noting that the absence of a united opposition candidate could dramatically reshape the contest in the coming months.
“The 2027 presidential race remains highly fluid, with no single candidate commanding dominant national support. While President William Ruto leads at 24 per cent, the findings show growing competition,” TIFA stated in its report.
The survey further indicated that Ruto’s popularity has steadily climbed over the past year, rising from the teens in earlier polls to 24 per cent, even as the number of undecided voters dropped to 15 per cent — a sign that more Kenyans are beginning to settle on potential candidates ahead of the election cycle.
Regionally, the Head of State recorded his strongest support in Northern Kenya, where he attracted 48 per cent backing, and in Nyanza, where he secured 41 per cent support.
Kalonzo, meanwhile, dominated the Lower Eastern region with an overwhelming 78 per cent rating, reaffirming his grip on the Ukambani voting bloc.
Matiang’i’s strongest performance was recorded in Nyanza at 27 per cent, while Gachagua maintained influence in the Mt Kenya region, where he scored 23 per cent support.
The survey also revealed widening cracks within ODM over the party’s political direction and its relationship with the Kenya Kwanza administration.
According to TIFA, a majority of ODM supporters are backing the Sifuna-led “Linda Mwananchi” faction, which advocates for a more aggressive opposition stance, over the Oburu Odinga-led “Linda Ground” camp associated with the broad-based arrangement with government.
The findings showed that 73 per cent of ODM supporters favour the Linda Mwananchi faction, while only 24 per cent support the Linda Ground side.
“ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government,” the report stated.
“The strong backing for the Linda Mwananchi faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable.”
The latest findings are likely to intensify political debate within both government and opposition circles as early succession politics continue to shape Kenya’s political landscape nearly two years before the next General Election.
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