UDA–ODM 2027 Plot Thickens as New Details on Grand Coalition Come to Light
A political accommodation between President William Ruto and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is rapidly evolving into what insiders describe as a “grand coalition in the making”, as the implementation of their 10-point reform agenda passes the halfway mark.
Sources familiar with the process told Flashnews that the broad-based pact—originally constructed as a stabilisation framework following months of political tension—has quietly transformed into the scaffolding of a potential joint political front for the 2027 General Election. Senior figures in both the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and ODM are now openly speaking about a shared political future.
Junet Mohamed, the National Assembly Minority Leader, confirmed that “50 per cent of the ten-point agenda is already implemented”, adding that full execution would “naturally lead to a structured coalition” between the two parties.
His remarks echo those of ODM leader Oburu Oginga, who succeeded Raila Odinga following his death last month. Dr Oginga insisted ODM’s participation in government was strategic and unavoidable: “ODM must be in government,” he said, framing the reform pact as both a present obligation and a long-term political roadmap.
Committee Reports Significant Progress
In an interview published Saturday, Agnes Zani, chairperson of the Committee on the Implementation of the 10-Point Agenda (COIN-10), and vice chairperson Javas Bigambo confirmed steady progress. The committee reports to both parties every two months, having already submitted briefs on 18 August and 6 October. The next is due on 6 December, with a final comprehensive report expected on 6 March—one day before the pact’s first anniversary.
Mr Mohamed disclosed that he and Dr Oginga had already met with the Zani-led team. “It is for a fact, not insinuation, that Baba left us in the broad-based government,” he said. “If the remaining 50 per cent is implemented, then we will have completed everything agreed—and we will be very happy as a party.”
The 10-point agenda covers inclusivity, devolution expansion, debt audit, youth empowerment, constitutionalism, equity in state appointments, and reparations for victims of protest-related violence between 2017 and 2023.
One unresolved issue, Mohamed said, is a court case blocking compensation for families of young people injured or killed during protests. “We request the Judiciary to dispense with that case urgently,” he stated. “We cannot replace lives, but reparations will help.”
ODM Pushes for Stronger Devolution Funding
The Suna East MP also highlighted progress on county funding—up from Sh385 billion to Sh415 billion—while insisting ODM would continue pushing for the Sh450 billion level envisioned by Raila Odinga.
Dr Oginga recently offered a blunt rationale for ODM’s shifting posture:
“All political parties are formed to capture power. As ODM, we want power. There is no party that is formed to remain in opposition.”
He insisted that demonstrations cannot be the party’s primary political tool: “How can we implement our policies if we don’t have power?”
Committee Approaches Key Deadline
Dr Zani maintained a cautious tone when asked whether the reforms would culminate in a coalition pact:
“My work is to look at the ten-point agenda, collect data and give information. What the political parties do with that data is their decision.”
However, she did not rule out the possibility.
Her deputy, Mr Bigambo, described the agenda as the “taproot” of the emerging ODM–UDA political architecture.
“Nine months since the MoU was entered into, both sides are conscious of the urgency,” he said.
Bigambo listed reforms already achieved:
- appointment of an expert panel on protest victims’ compensation
- reconstitution of the IEBC
- passage and operationalisation of the IEBC (Amendment) Act, 2024
- stabilisation of production costs
- assent to the Persons with Disabilities Act, 2025
- increased county allocations
- rollout of NYOTA and Climate WorX youth programmes
- signing of the Conflict of Interest Act, 2025
- progress on debt restructuring
- transition to e-procurement
He framed the agenda as redefining economic justice nationwide: “No region should be left to eat crumbs from the national development table.”
UDA Hails By-Election Sweep as ‘Mandate for Broad-Based Politics’
UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar celebrated the party’s strong showing in recent by-elections—12 seats directly and six through broad-based partners.
“These results show, without equivocation, that the broad-based government is what Kenyans want,” he declared. “We have secured an almost super-majority.”
Party strategists argue that the results confirm the ODM–UDA collaboration is gaining public traction.
Internal ODM Resistance Persists
Still, ODM faces internal divisions that could test the pact’s durability.
Deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi insists President Ruto must fully honour the reform agenda and the NADCO report “to respect Odinga’s legacy.”
Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna remains the most vocal sceptic:
“The MoU does not amount to a coalition agreement nor signal any realignments for 2027,” he said. “There is no government called broad-based.”
Sifuna has accused the administration of perpetuating abductions and extra-judicial killings “in total disregard of the agreement.”
Siaya Governor James Orengo has similarly warned that the MoU “is not enforceable under the Political Parties Act.”
These fissures reflect ODM’s ongoing struggle to redefine itself after Raila Odinga’s exit.
Analysts See Coalition Path Quietly Forming
Constitutional lawyer Chris Omore described the unfolding events as typical of Kenyan coalition-building:
“The making of a grand coalition is rarely dramatic. It unfolds quietly—through reforms implemented, trust built, and incentives aligned.”
He believes the 10-point agenda has become the template for this political recalibration. “For ODM, it is a pathway to power without street battles. For UDA, it consolidates a national front ahead of 2027.”
2027 Decision to Be Made at ‘Top Level’
UDA Deputy Secretary-General Omboko Milemba said the 2027 game plan would be settled exclusively by President Ruto and the ODM leader:
“They will decide at their own level, and we shall execute their instructions.”
UDA Organising Secretary Vincent Kawaya urged calm, saying internal party demands were normal ahead of coalition talks:
“ODM is a major partner with a larger control of the voters. It’s not wrong for them to make demands,” he said, insisting only the presidency was non-negotiable on a joint ticket.
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UDA–ODM 2027 Plot Thickens as New Details on Grand Coalition Come to Light