Western Kenya Turns Battleground: ODM’s Grip Weakens as Rivals Close In
Western Kenya is shaping up to be one of the most fiercely contested political battlegrounds ahead of the 2027 General Election, despite the emerging cooperation between President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
A new survey by research firm Infotrak has revealed that ODM retains a slim lead in the region, underlining the fragile and shifting nature of local political loyalties.
According to the Infotrak study released on January 8, 2026, ODM commands 25 per cent support in Western Kenya, narrowly ahead of UDA, which stands at 20 per cent. The findings come at a time of intense political realignments as parties position themselves for the 2027 polls.
ODM’s long-standing grip on the “Mulembe Nation”
For nearly two decades, ODM has been a dominant political force in Western Kenya, largely due to its ability to forge broad-based coalitions and champion devolution — a message that resonated strongly with the Luhya community.
The party’s influence in the so-called “Mulembe Nation” can be traced back to the 2007 elections, when ODM made a major breakthrough by winning 99 parliamentary seats nationally and courting Western Kenya voters with promises of inclusion and power-sharing.
That dominance was reaffirmed in 2013, when Raila Odinga, running under the CORD coalition, secured 62.2 per cent of the vote in Western Province, decisively outperforming local favourite Musalia Mudavadi, who garnered 29.1 per cent.
ODM’s grip tightened further during the 2017 elections, when the NASA coalition delivered approximately 81 per cent of the Western vote, bolstered by support from influential regional leaders.
New challenges and growing cracks
However, the political landscape has shifted significantly since then. ODM is now facing unprecedented pressure, fuelled by internal divisions, leadership uncertainty and a wave of high-profile defections that threaten its traditional stronghold.
On December 31, 2025, former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya publicly declared his intention to part ways with ODM, calling on the Luhya community to “unite under Moses Wetangula” — a statement widely interpreted as a direct challenge to ODM’s regional authority.
The Infotrak survey underscores that while ODM and UDA may be pursuing a “broad-based” working relationship at the national level, grassroots politics in Western Kenya remains fiercely competitive.
ODM faces critical 2026 decision
Adding to the uncertainty, ODM has set a June 2026 deadline to decide whether it will formally align itself with the current government or chart an independent course into the 2027 elections.
Political analysts warn that the party’s next move could determine whether it retains relevance in Western Kenya or cedes ground to emerging rivals.
Particularly concerning for ODM is the rise of the Democratic Action Party–Kenya (DAP-K), led by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa and his deputy, Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. The party is steadily consolidating support and positioning itself as a credible alternative in the region.
“A vacuum at the centre”
Critics argue that ODM’s biggest challenge lies in the absence of a single, unifying figure capable of commanding the loyalty Raila Odinga once enjoyed.
“Without a dominant national figure holding the coalition together, ODM risks being overtaken by local power brokers who understand the regional dynamics better,” one political analyst observed.
As the countdown to 2027 gathers pace, the Infotrak findings suggest that Western Kenya will remain a decisive and unpredictable battleground, with no party able to take the region’s support for granted.
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Western Kenya Turns Battleground: ODM’s Grip Weakens as Rivals Close In